How fire risk and mitigation are related

Fire chiefs who want to achieve excellence must understand that public fire protection consists of much more than firefighters, apparatus and water supplies. They must also appreciate the value of the other elements of fire protection that mitigate fire risk.

I describe fire risk as the product of three probabilities. The equation for fire risk,

R, is:

R = (P₁) (P₂) (P₃)

 where:

   P1 = the probability of a fire starting

   P2 = the probability of a fire spreading

   P3 = the probability of a fire doing harm to property and people

The three elements of overall fire risk have three primary mitigation methods. Public education is the primary means of reducing P₁. Code enforcement also helps reduce P₁ but is not the primary means, and manual suppression plays no role at all.

Code enforcement, which includes effective building and fire codes, requirements for built-in suppression, knowledgeable plan reviewers and inspectors, is the primary means of reducing P₂. Public education also plays a role, followed by manual suppression. Suppression is the primary means of reducing P₃, but code enforcement and public education also play roles.

The fire risk equation and the related mitigation methods make it clear that fire chiefs who rely upon manual suppression cannot effectively control their fire risks. Fire chiefs who invest in quality public education and code enforcement can.